Going by recent political developments in Kenya, United Democratic Front’s Musalia Mudavadi is set to win the coming presidential elections in the first round, with a landslide.
Kenya politics is quite strange. Nobody thought of the Sabatia MP as a serious presidential candidate 6 months ago. And going by “opinion polls”, he only recently didn’t appear to have a chance to become CEO of the republic of Kenya.
Why has Mudavadi suddenly become a favorite to win the next elections after defecting to the little known UDF party ?
Because of several favorable factors. First advantage he has is that the next elections is mostly about sworn enemies fighting to become president, and apparently, upon winning, mete out revenge on the losers.
In such a scenario, Musalia has the advantage of not having any serious political enemy. His declaration that he is seeking the presidency has created a buzz aound the country because he is a man capable of getting votes from across the country.
Unlike other top presidential contenders, Musalia has no major tribal support. About half of elected MPs from his Maragoli and neghbouring subtribes are not on his side. That is not a disadvantage.
He is seen as calm and weak. And that is a huge political advantage in Kenya.
Daniel arap Moi became president only because some powerful figures sorrounding old and ailing Mzee Jomo Kenyatta led by then powerful Attorney General Charles Njonjo believed he (Moi) was weak.
Same case with Mwai Kibaki. He became president because formidable politicians led by Raila Odinga believed he (Kibaki) was weak as compared to his main opponent in 2002 elections, Uhuru Kenyatta.
Until very recently, it appeared like Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Prime Minister Raila Odinga would be the main contestants in the coming general elections. Kalonzo’s hopes were dashed, not by his political enemies but close allies led by MP Jonstone Muthama.
The third advantage Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi has is about what the elections will be about. I suspect his UDF party will mount a campaign based on “peace and unity”.
His major opponent will be ODM’s Raila Odinga. He might choose to campaign on a “reforms” platform.
Would Kenyans be excited by reforms or peace and unity?
If Kenyans are excited about reforms, then Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth would be the front runner in the presidential contest.
One day is a long time in politics and situation may change. But as matters stand now, Musalia Mudavadi has one foot in state house.
